Mapping Opportunities for Wildfire Hazard Reduction in Europe Through Targeted Land Management Strategies

Abstract

The combination of climate change, land abandonment, and the loss of traditional fire management activities is increasing the risk of uncontrolled wildfires across Europe. Although fire is considered an integral part of many ecosystems, an increasing number of European communities, natural areas, and infrastructures are at risk of larger and more intense fires as the distribution and composition of fuel loads are altered under new fire regimes. Our study assesses the potential suitability of three land management strategies (LMS) to mitigate fire hazard through fuel management in Europe. These LMS are herbivory, mechanical fuel removal, and prescribed burning. Adoption factors determining the likelihood of LMS implementation were identified by means of a systematic literature review (n=123). These factors included the presence of dominant livestock types, transport accessibility to cities, the presence of biomass-for-energy infrastructure, and suitable weather conditions for prescribed burns. We mapped the distribution of each of the adoption factors to create suitability maps for each LMS across Europe. Priority areas for intervention were determined by comparing the suitability maps with a proxy for wildfire hazard. We found that opportunities to implement LMS for fire hazard reduction varied spatially. In the southern areas of high and medium risk, prescribed burn was the only strategy found suitable for fire hazard mitigation. In contrast, herbivory was the only suitable LMS found in much of northern Europe in high- and medium-wildfire hazard areas. Over a quarter of Europe had options for multiple LMS for high- and medium-risk areas. Our results provide a basis for conceptualizing a broader fire risk mitigation strategy in Europe and for prioritizing efforts and resources accordingly. Initiatives to implement the results must consider the appropriateness of LMS for local contexts, targeted incentive programs, and trade-offs between fire hazard, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and potential unintended effects.

Keywords: Fire hazard, pyrogeography, land management, pastoralism, mechanical removal, prescribed burn