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A Multi-Model Analysis of the EU's Path to Net Zero: Aligning Near-Term Action with Long-Term Visions

28 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2023 Publication Status: Published

See all articles by Baptiste Boitier

Baptiste Boitier

SEURECO Sarl

Alexandros Nikas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Ajay Gambhir

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment

Konstantinos Koasidis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Alessia Elia

E4SMA

Khaled Al-Dabbas

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Şirin Alibaş

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Lorenza Campagnolo

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)

Alessandro Chiodi

E4SMA

Elisa Delpiazzo

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)

Haris Doukas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit

Arnaud Fougeyrollas

SEURECO Sarl

Maurizio Gargiulo

E4SMA

Pierre Le Mouël

SEURECO Sarl

Felix Neuner

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Sigit Perdana

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) - LEURE Laboratory

Dirk-Jan Van de Ven

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Marc Vielle

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) - LEURE Laboratory

Paul Zagamé

SEURECO Sarl

Shivika Mittal

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment

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Abstract

The EU recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of -55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study instigates a model inter-comparison exercise to assess the EU’s path, from ‘Fit for 55’ in 2030, to an intermediate milestone in 2040, onto net-zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and Member State levels. Our results validate the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors, while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonisation of power and upstream energy by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45-65% in 2030 to 75-90% in 2050 in the electricity mix) and carbon capture and storage (0.5-2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of Member States for net-zero, and timing of coal phase out and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.

Keywords: Modelling, climate mitigation pathways, Net-zero emissions, European climate policy, climate and energy transition

Suggested Citation

Boitier, Baptiste and Nikas, Alexandros and Gambhir, Ajay and Koasidis, Konstantinos and Elia, Alessia and Al-Dabbas, Khaled and Alibaş, Şirin and Campagnolo, Lorenza and Chiodi, Alessandro and Delpiazzo, Elisa and Doukas, Haris and Fougeyrollas, Arnaud and Gargiulo, Maurizio and Le Mouël, Pierre and Neuner, Felix and Perdana, Sigit and Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan and Vielle, Marc and Zagamé, Paul and Mittal, Shivika and Administrator, Sneak Peek, A Multi-Model Analysis of the EU's Path to Net Zero: Aligning Near-Term Action with Long-Term Visions. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4423206 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4423206
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

Baptiste Boitier

SEURECO Sarl ( email )

Alexandros Nikas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Ajay Gambhir (Contact Author)

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment ( email )

South Kensington
United Kingdom

Konstantinos Koasidis

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Alessia Elia

E4SMA ( email )

Khaled Al-Dabbas

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI ( email )

Germany

Şirin Alibaş

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI ( email )

Germany

Lorenza Campagnolo

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)

Alessandro Chiodi

E4SMA ( email )

Torino
Italy

Elisa Delpiazzo

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) ( email )

Haris Doukas

National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) - Energy Policy Unit ( email )

Athens
Greece

Arnaud Fougeyrollas

SEURECO Sarl ( email )

Maurizio Gargiulo

E4SMA ( email )

Torino
Italy

Pierre Le Mouël

SEURECO Sarl ( email )

Felix Neuner

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI ( email )

Germany

Sigit Perdana

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) - LEURE Laboratory ( email )

Switzerland

Dirk-Jan Van de Ven

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) ( email )

Gran Vía 35-2
Bilbao, Vizcaya 48009
Spain

Marc Vielle

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) - LEURE Laboratory ( email )

Switzerland

Paul Zagamé

SEURECO Sarl ( email )

Shivika Mittal

Imperial College London - Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment ( email )

South Kensington
United Kingdom