The EU recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of -55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study instigates a model inter-comparison exercise to assess the EU’s path, from ‘Fit for 55’ in 2030, to an intermediate milestone in 2040, onto net-zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and Member State levels. Our results validate the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors, while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonisation of power and upstream energy by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45-65% in 2030 to 75-90% in 2050 in the electricity mix) and carbon capture and storage (0.5-2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of Member States for net-zero, and timing of coal phase out and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.
Keywords: Modelling, climate mitigation pathways, Net-zero emissions, European climate policy, climate and energy transition
Boitier, Baptiste and Nikas, Alexandros and Gambhir, Ajay and Koasidis, Konstantinos and Elia, Alessia and Al-Dabbas, Khaled and Alibaş, Şirin and Campagnolo, Lorenza and Chiodi, Alessandro and Delpiazzo, Elisa and Doukas, Haris and Fougeyrollas, Arnaud and Gargiulo, Maurizio and Le Mouël, Pierre and Neuner, Felix and Perdana, Sigit and Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan and Vielle, Marc and Zagamé, Paul and Mittal, Shivika and Administrator, Sneak Peek, A Multi-Model Analysis of the EU's Path to Net Zero: Aligning Near-Term Action with Long-Term Visions. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4423206 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4423206
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.