Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region

Abstract

Based on the balance approach, the report analyses the production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complexes of the EAEU countries, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for the period until 2035. The resource potential for extensive and intensive growth of production of key agri-food products is estimated for two scenarios, taking into account the prospects of agricultural lands expansion and improving yields and productivity. Consumer demand models are used for scenario-based estimation of potential domestic consumption of agro-industrial products, including for food and other purposes. Export potential estimates are based on the logic of the balance approach. In addition, the paper identifies potential markets for food products; offers estimates of the macroeconomic effects of the realisation of the resource, production, and export potential of the agro-industrial complex made by applying multipliers, calculated based on input-output tables; examines the factors hindering development of the agro-industrial complex; offers ways to tap the potential; and defines the principle aspects of food policy in the region.

Keywords: food security, Eurasian region, Central Asia, Eurasian Economic Union, food exports, mutual trade, export potential

JEL Classification: F15, F17, F52, L66, Q11, Q18