Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region

Reports and Working Papers 23/1. Almaty: Eurasian Development Bank. 2023

124 Pages Posted: 3 May 2023

See all articles by Evgeny Vinokurov

Evgeny Vinokurov

Eurasian Development Bank

Arman Ahunbaev

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)

Stanislav Chuyev

Eurasian Development Bank

Nursultan Usmanov

Eurasian Development Bank

Alexander Zaboev

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)

Anton Malakhov

Eurasian Development Bank

Vladimir Pereboev

EDB Centre for Integration Studies

Mikhail Ksenofontov

Eurasian Development Bank

Dmitry Polzikov

Eurasian Development Bank

Vadim Potapenko

Eurasian Development Bank

Valentin Shalimov

Eurasian Development Bank

Date Written: April 13, 2023

Abstract

Based on the balance approach, the report analyses the production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complexes of the EAEU countries, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for the period until 2035. The resource potential for extensive and intensive growth of production of key agri-food products is estimated for two scenarios, taking into account the prospects of agricultural lands expansion and improving yields and productivity. Consumer demand models are used for scenario-based estimation of potential domestic consumption of agro-industrial products, including for food and other purposes. Export potential estimates are based on the logic of the balance approach. In addition, the paper identifies potential markets for food products; offers estimates of the macroeconomic effects of the realisation of the resource, production, and export potential of the agro-industrial complex made by applying multipliers, calculated based on input-output tables; examines the factors hindering development of the agro-industrial complex; offers ways to tap the potential; and defines the principle aspects of food policy in the region.

Keywords: food security, Eurasian region, Central Asia, Eurasian Economic Union, food exports, mutual trade, export potential

JEL Classification: F15, F17, F52, L66, Q11, Q18

Suggested Citation

Vinokurov, Evgeny and Ahunbaev, Arman and Chuyev, Stanislav and Usmanov, Nursultan and Zaboev, Alexander and Malakhov, Anton and Pereboev, Vladimir and Ksenofontov, Mikhail and Polzikov, Dmitry and Potapenko, Vadim and Shalimov, Valentin, Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region (April 13, 2023). Reports and Working Papers 23/1. Almaty: Eurasian Development Bank. 2023, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4425508

Evgeny Vinokurov (Contact Author)

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

1st Zachatyevskiy Lane 3b1
Moscow, 191123
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.vinokurov.info

Arman Ahunbaev

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) ( email )

1 Zachatievskiy pereulok
house 3, block 1
Moscow, 119034
Russia

Stanislav Chuyev

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

Nursultan Usmanov

Eurasian Development Bank

Alexander Zaboev

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) ( email )

1 Zachatievskiy pereulok house 3, block 1
Moscow, 119034
Russia

Anton Malakhov

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

Russia

Vladimir Pereboev

EDB Centre for Integration Studies ( email )

Paradnaya 7
Saint-Petersburg, 191123
Russia

Mikhail Ksenofontov

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

Dmitry Polzikov

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

Vadim Potapenko

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

Valentin Shalimov

Eurasian Development Bank ( email )

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