Destructive Isolationism: Tallying the Cost of America’s Trade Policy and Suggestions for Repair and Reform

24 Pages Posted: 16 May 2023 Last revised: 8 Jul 2023

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Date Written: July 7, 2023

Abstract

Starting with the Trump Administration and continuing under the Biden Administration America’s trade policy can be characterized as one of “destructive isolationism”. It has undermined the multilateral trade system whose creation it had led; pulled America out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a key agreement solidifying its trade relations with its Pacific Rim partners, and replaced it with an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that is not only unfunded but unfounded in political or economic reality; distanced itself from Europe which now talks about “strategic autonomy” and is visibly disintegrating as a geopolitical entity as it faces a revisionist Russia on its eastern flank; renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement under acrimonious rhetoric, causing Canada to rename its minister for trade the “Minister for Trade Diversification” while alienating Mexico; and attacked China with a diplomatically toxic and economically self-harming commercial policy, driving China to reformulate its economic policy in an increasingly adversarial posture and to take active countermeasures to undermine the collective West. This note tallies the quantifiable damage to America at an annual real GDP reduction of 1.16% or $311 billion at 2023 levels of GDP. This trade policy needs to be fundamentally reset to one made with the interests of America and America’s western partners not in the cross-hairs but in constructive negotiation. I suggest how this can be done with four strokes of the pen: by the US rejoining the TPP, removing the block on staffing the WTO Appellate Body, rescinding the WTO-illegal industrial tariffs on China, and launching a negotiation towards a new NAFTA – a North Atlantic Free Trade Area.

Keywords: US trade policy, TPP, USMCA, TTIP, NAFTA, trade war, Trump, Putin, Russia, active measures, China, BRICS, Sullivan Doctrine

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan, Destructive Isolationism: Tallying the Cost of America’s Trade Policy and Suggestions for Repair and Reform (July 7, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4427958 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4427958

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

Canada

HOME PAGE: http://ciuriakconsulting.com/

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
222
Abstract Views
1,057
Rank
282,144
PlumX Metrics