Testing Predictive Biases at the Intersection of Race-Ethnicity and Sex: A Multi-Site Evaluation of a Pretrial Risk Assessment Tool

29 Pages Posted: 12 May 2023 Last revised: 17 Jul 2023

See all articles by Matthew DeMichele

Matthew DeMichele

RTI International

Ian Silver

RTI International

Ryan Labrecque

RTI International

Debbie Dawes

RTI International

Pamela K. Lattimore

RTI International - Headquarters - Research Triangle Park

Stephen Tueller

RTI International - Headquarters - Research Triangle Park

Date Written: April 28, 2023

Abstract

Pretrial assessments provide courtroom actors with objective information about the likelihood that someone who has been charged with a criminal offense would engage in criminal behavior if released prior to trial. Although prior research supports the ability of assessments to predict pretrial outcomes, there are concerns that assessments may inadvertently exacerbate racial-ethnic and sex disparities found in the larger criminal legal system. In the current study, we conduct a multi-site predictive bias tests of a widely used pretrial instrument—the Public Safety Assessment (PSA)—across six racial-ethnic and sex groups (i.e., White males, White females, Black males, Black females, Hispanic males, Hispanic females). Study results support the PSA as a valid and consistent predictor of failure to appear, new criminal activity, and new violent criminal activity across these six racial-ethnic and sex groups. These findings support the use the PSA and identify several areas for future research.

Keywords: jail, gender, pretrial, PSA, race, pretrial assessment

Suggested Citation

DeMichele, Matthew and Silver, Ian and Labrecque, Ryan and Dawes, Debbie and Lattimore, Pamela K. and Tueller, Stephen, Testing Predictive Biases at the Intersection of Race-Ethnicity and Sex: A Multi-Site Evaluation of a Pretrial Risk Assessment Tool (April 28, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4432449 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4432449

Matthew DeMichele (Contact Author)

RTI International ( email )

PO Box 12194
Washington, DC 20036-3209
United States

Ian Silver

RTI International ( email )

Raleigh, NC
United States

Ryan Labrecque

RTI International ( email )

Raleigh, NC
United States

Debbie Dawes

RTI International ( email )

Pamela K. Lattimore

RTI International - Headquarters - Research Triangle Park ( email )

Stephen Tueller

RTI International - Headquarters - Research Triangle Park ( email )

3040 Cornwallis Road
P.O. Box 12194
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
United States

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