New Insights into Health Risk Assessment on Soil Trace Metal(Loid)S: Model Improvement and Parameter Optimization

Abstract

Trace metal(loid)s (TMs) in soils may pose potential health risks to humans. Due to model uncertainty and variability of exposure parameters, the traditional Health risk assessment (HRA) model may lead to inaccurate risk assessment results. Therefore, this study developed an improved HRA model to assess health risks by combining two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (2-D MCS) with a Logistic Chaotic sequence based on published data from 2000 to 2021. The results showed children and adult females were the high-risks populations for Non-carcinogenic risk and Carcinogenic risk, respectively. Meanwhile, children’s Ingestion rate (IngR < 160.233 mg/day) and adult females’ Skin adherence factor (0.026 mg/(cm2•d) < AF < 0.263 mg/(cm2•d)) were used as recommended exposure to make the health risk within acceptable range. Additionally, when performing a risk assessment for them using actual exposure parameters, As was identified as the priority control TMs in Southwest China and Inner Mongolia, whereas Cr and Pb be the priority control TMs in Tibet and Yunnan, respectively. Compared to health risk assessment, improved models increased risk assessment accuracy and provided recommended exposure parameter for high-risk populations. This study will provide new insights for soil-related health risk assessment.

Keywords: Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation, Logistic chaotic sequence, High-risk populations, Exposure parameter