Cost-Benefits Analysis of Ultra-Low Emissions Standard on Air Quality and Health Impact in Thermal Power Plants in China, a Modelling Study

Abstract

Background: Except for estimating the health impact of the ultra-low emissions (ULE) policy, previous studies have not evaluated the health impact of detailed control measures under ULE policy, monetized the health benefits and compared them with the technology or policy costs. In this study, we aim to estimate and monetize the health benefits of different control measures under ULE policy in the thermal power sector, and then compare them with the direct implementation costs.

Methods: In this modeling study, we adopt an integrated assessment framework that combines the China Emissions Accounts for Power Plants (CEAP) database, the Weather Research and Forecasting- Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF-CAMx) model, the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment, and economy for Sustainable Development/Health impact assessment (IMED|HEL) model and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model. We simulated the variations in PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations caused by the implementation of each measure, quantified the number of air pollution-attributable excess deaths and monetary values avoided by each measure, and estimated the costs of each major control measure and compared it with the monetary values of the policy implementation process.

Findings: The results show that all the control measures result in reduced air pollution compared to without the implementation of the ULE policy, and renovating pre-existing units (RPU) is the most effective control measure. Under a comparatively optimistic health benefits valuation condition, at the national level, 67 831 premature deaths could be avoided, and the net economic benefits of combining health benefits and costs due to control measures are 109.92 billion Yuan (in 2015 value) in China. At the regional level, our study shows substantial geographical variation in the health benefit and the three regions to benefit will be the east, central & south and northeast of China, and the top three provinces to benefit will be Shandong, Jiangsu and Henan. However, people in the northwest (especially in Qinghai and Ningxia), which also are the less developed area, have the smallest benefit. The comprehensive results reveal that the health benefits outweigh the direct policy costs due to adopting the control measures.

Interpretation: This assessment provides estimates of the cost-benefits from the effects of the ULE policy. The results show that there are substantial positive health outcomes from the ULE policy. However, a long-term compensation mechanism for inter-provincial interests should be established to further ensure fairness in health benefits. Furthermore, more aggressive and locality-specific control policies should be instituted and enforced, to reduce the effect of air pollution on long-term economic development and population health.

Funding: This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71971007; 71903010; 72004144; 72174125), Beijing Natural Science Foundation of China (No. JQ21033) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. buctrc202133).

Declaration of Interest: The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Keywords: Cost-benefits, Ultra-low emissions, Air quality, Health impact, Thermal power plants, China