Crisis Risk and Risk Management

Fisher College of Business Working Paper No. 2023-010

Charles A. Dice Working Paper No. 2023-10

39 Pages Posted: 8 May 2023

See all articles by René M. Stulz

René M. Stulz

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Date Written: May 5, 2023

Abstract

This paper assesses the current state of knowledge about crisis risk and its implications for risk management. Better data that became available since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has improved our understanding of crisis risk. These data have been used to show that some types of crises become predictable when one accounts for interactions between risks. Specifically, a financial crisis is much more likely in the years following both high credit growth and high asset valuations. However, some other types of crises do not seem predictable. There is no evidence that the frequency of economic and financial crises is increasing. The existing data show that political crises make economic crises more likely, so that, as suggested by the concept of polycrisis, feedback between non-economic crises and economic crises can be important, but there is no comparable evidence for climate events. Strategies that increase firm operational and financial flexibility appear successful at reducing the adverse impact of crises on firms.

Keywords: crisis risk, risk management, financial crisis, polycrisis, compound risk

JEL Classification: G01, G21, G32

Suggested Citation

Stulz, Rene M., Crisis Risk and Risk Management (May 5, 2023). Fisher College of Business Working Paper No. 2023-010, Charles A. Dice Working Paper No. 2023-10, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4439633 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4439633

Rene M. Stulz (Contact Author)

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance ( email )

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Columbus, OH 43210-1144
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/faculty/stulz

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

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Belgium

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