The Inflation Reduction Act's Impact on Tax Compliance—and Fiscal Sustainability

Abstract

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes a once-in-a-generation investment in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to modernize America’s tax administration and, by doing so, meaningfully increase compliance with the nation’s tax laws. We consider the impact of this investment on new tax revenue that the agency will be able to collect. Our rough estimate suggests that IRS funding will raise at least $560 billion ($480 billion, net) over the course of the next ten years—and, depending on the extent of taxpayer’s behavioral response to greater enforcement presence, could easily raise closer to $1 trillion. This is much larger than official government estimates.

Keywords: IRS, tax administration, government scorekeeping

JEL Classification: H26, H83