Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers

58 Pages Posted: 27 Oct 2003

See all articles by Charles Cao

Charles Cao

Pennsylvania State University

John M. Griffin

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance

Zhiwu Chen

University of Hong Kong, Faculty of Business Economics (HKU Business School); Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong

Date Written: September 2003

Abstract

This paper examines the information embedded in both the stock and option markets prior to takeover announcements. During normal periods, buyer-seller initiated stock volume imbalances are significant predictors of next-day stock returns and option volume imbalances are uninformative. However, prior to takeover announcements, call volume imbalances are strongly positively related to next-day stock returns. Cross-sectional analysis shows that those takeover targets with the largest pre-announcement call-imbalance increases experience the highest announcement-day returns. The largest increase in buyer-initiated trading activity is in short-term out-of-the-money calls that subsequently experience the largest returns. Collectively, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that, in the presence of pending extreme informational events, the options market plays an important role in price discovery.

Suggested Citation

Cao, Charles and Griffin, John M. and Chen, Zhiwu, Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers (September 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=445320

Charles Cao (Contact Author)

Pennsylvania State University ( email )

Department of Finance
Smeal College of Business
University Park, PA 16802
United States
814-865-7891 (Phone)
814-865-3362 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/qxc2/cao.html

John M. Griffin

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance ( email )

Red McCombs School of Business
Austin, TX 78712
United States
512-471-6621 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.jgriffin.info

Zhiwu Chen

University of Hong Kong, Faculty of Business Economics (HKU Business School) ( email )

Pokfulam Road
Hong Kong
Hong Kong

Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong ( email )

Room 328-348, Main Building
The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam
Hong Kong