Momentum Trading in the NFL Gambling Market

9 Pages Posted: 25 May 2023

See all articles by John R. Nofsinger

John R. Nofsinger

University of Alaska Anchorage

Corey A. Shank

Miami University

Date Written: May 20, 2023

Abstract

We explore the impact of momentum trading in the NFL betting market at the aggregate weekly level. Bettors prefer to bet on momentum rather than mean reversion in the totals market. The effect is strongest when they bet that the total points scored by both teams will be under the betting line set by bookmakers, especially when the under bet won 60% or more of the games in the previous 1, 2, and 3 weeks. Momentum trading by betting the score will be over the betting line loses money, while trading in the under makes a profit.

Suggested Citation

Nofsinger, John R. and Shank, Corey, Momentum Trading in the NFL Gambling Market (May 20, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4454140 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4454140

John R. Nofsinger

University of Alaska Anchorage ( email )

3211 Providence Drive
Anchorage, AK 99508
United States

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu/jnofsinger/

Corey Shank (Contact Author)

Miami University ( email )

Oxford, OH 45056
United States

HOME PAGE: http://coreyshank.com

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
52
Abstract Views
290
Rank
701,323
PlumX Metrics