Collaborative Modelling for Goal-Oriented Scenario Planning: A Resilience Planning Case Study in the Context of Greater Sydney
34 Pages Posted: 26 May 2023
Worldwide, natural hazards have an increasing impact on ever expanding urbanised areas. Therefore, authorities need more sophisticated planning support systems (PSS) to enhance city resilience. Our study aimed at demonstrating the potential of such a PSS for resilience goal-oriented and collaborative scenario planning in the Greater Sydney's context. Here a large-scale urban growth model was developed using the Metronamica tool, a cellular automata-based PSS. The collaborative planning process used a geodesign approach allowing participants to build scenarios towards 2050, namely: Business-As-Usual (BAU), Bushfire resilience, Flood resilience, and Combined resilience. Results showed, in particular, that the Bushfire resilience scenario departed significantly from the BAU scenario, based on the current policy framework. The urban heat impact assessment showed that medium-density development could assist in reducing people’s exposure in cities. Future research can leverage this approach by engaging with wider community into the scenario planning process for city resilience decision-making.
Keywords: urban growth model, collaborative planning, Bushfire, Flood, urban heat, Greater Sydney
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