Collaborative Modelling for Goal-Oriented Scenario Planning: A Resilience Planning Case Study in the Context of Greater Sydney

34 Pages Posted: 26 May 2023

See all articles by Ripan Debnath

Ripan Debnath

University of New South Wales

Christopher Pettit

University of New South Wales

Hedwig van Delden

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Pascal Perez

The University of Melbourne

Abstract

Worldwide, natural hazards have an increasing impact on ever expanding urbanised areas. Therefore, authorities need more sophisticated planning support systems (PSS) to enhance city resilience. Our study aimed at demonstrating the potential of such a PSS for resilience goal-oriented and collaborative scenario planning in the Greater Sydney's context. Here a large-scale urban growth model was developed using the Metronamica tool, a cellular automata-based PSS. The collaborative planning process used a geodesign approach allowing participants to build scenarios towards 2050, namely: Business-As-Usual (BAU), Bushfire resilience, Flood resilience, and Combined resilience. Results showed, in particular, that the Bushfire resilience scenario departed significantly from the BAU scenario, based on the current policy framework. The urban heat impact assessment showed that medium-density development could assist in reducing people’s exposure in cities. Future research can leverage this approach by engaging with wider community into the scenario planning process for city resilience decision-making.

Keywords: urban growth model, collaborative planning, Bushfire, Flood, urban heat, Greater Sydney

Suggested Citation

Debnath, Ripan and Pettit, Christopher and van Delden, Hedwig and Perez, Pascal, Collaborative Modelling for Goal-Oriented Scenario Planning: A Resilience Planning Case Study in the Context of Greater Sydney. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4459985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4459985

Ripan Debnath (Contact Author)

University of New South Wales ( email )

Sydney, 2052
Australia

Christopher Pettit

University of New South Wales ( email )

Sydney, 2052
Australia

Hedwig Van Delden

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Pascal Perez

The University of Melbourne ( email )

Parkville, 3010
Australia

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
31
Abstract Views
123
PlumX Metrics