Predicting the Distribution Coefficient of Cesium in Solid Phase Groups Using Machine Learning

Abstract

The migration and retention of radioactive contaminants such as 137Cesium (137Cs) in various environmental media pose significant long-term storage challenges for nuclear waste. The distribution coefficient (Kd) is a critical parameter for assessing the mobility of radioactive contaminants and is influenced by various environmental conditions. This study presents machine-learning models based on the Japan Atomic Energy Agency Sorption Database (JAEA-SDB) to predict the Kd values for Cs in solid phase groups. We used three different machine learning models: random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and convolutional neural network (CNN). The models were trained on 14 input variables from the JAEA-SDB, including factors such as the Cs concentration, solid-phase properties, and solution conditions, which were preprocessed by normalization and log-transformation. The performances of the models were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), and the RF, ANN, and CNN models achieved R2 values greater than 0.97, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively. We also analyzed the variable importance of RF using an out-of-bag (OOB) and a CNN with an attention module. Our results showed that the environmental media, initial radionuclide concentration, solid phase properties, and solution conditions were significant variables for Kd prediction. Our models accurately predict Kd values for different environmental conditions and can assess the environmental risk by analyzing the behavior of radionuclides in solid phase groups. The results of this study can improve safety analyses and long-term risk assessments related to waste disposal and prevent potential hazards and sources of contamination in the surrounding environment.

Keywords: Cesium, Distribution coefficient, JAEA-SDB, Machine Learning, sorption, Variable importance