World ESG Performance and Economic Activity

Abstract

Using data from forty-six developed and emerging markets, we show that a world-based environmental, social, and governance index (ESGI) provides useful information about future economic activity in- and out-of-sample. A relatively high increase in ESGI predicts a decrease (increase) in future economic activity in the short (long) term. We document that the environmental, social, and governance components of ESGI contribute to the predictability of economic activity. Our results have significant implications for policymakers to advise firms to adopt better ESG practices.

Keywords: Forecasting; Real Economic Activity; ESG

JEL Classification: G15; E37