Diversity, Segregation and Support for Brexit

Abstract

What effect does local economic inequality and ethnic diversity have on voting behaviour? This question is of increasing importance as many cities in the US, UK and other developed countries experience rising inequality and immigration. Using Brexit as a case study, and exploiting hyper-localised data on economic inequality and migrants, I explore the impact of neighbourhood composition on voting behaviour. I find robust evidence that both economic and ethnic diversity are substantively associated with reduced support for Brexit. However, this effect is mitigated by segregation – neighborhoods that are more highly segregated tend to show greater support for Brexit.

Keywords: Brexit, inequality, migration, voting behaviour, inter-group contact

JEL Classification: Z13, J15, P16