Probability of Development of Nuclear Weapons by Ukraine: Scenarios and Factors

Defence and Strategy, Volume 23 number 1 (June 2023), pp. 96-113.

18 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2023

See all articles by Konstantin Yanovskiy

Konstantin Yanovskiy

Shomron Center for Economic Policy Research

Yehoshua Socol

Jerusalem College of Technology

Date Written: June 26, 2023

Abstract

The threat of the use of nuclear weapons by the aggressor is a significant factor in the ongoing war. Also in future, the Ukrainian government (any leadership) will be interested in its own nuclear weapons at least as long as Russia is ruled by an ill-predictable authoritarian regime. Nuclear arms could be helpful for Ukraine both for deterrence and to increase the attractiveness of the country as a military ally. However, due to many economic, political, and legal factors discussed in the paper, the likelihood of development of Ukraine’s own nuclear arsenal should be considered as extremely low. The unlikely scenario, in which Ukraine could nevertheless develop such weapons, would require such a significant improvement of political and economic institutions, that the risk for third countries from the new nuclear actor will remain minimal.

Note:

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords: Nuclear deterrence; economic freedom; corruption; quality of institutions

JEL Classification: D72, D73, D74, D78, H56

Suggested Citation

Yanovskiy, Konstantin (Moshe) and Socol, Yehoshua, Probability of Development of Nuclear Weapons by Ukraine: Scenarios and Factors (June 26, 2023). Defence and Strategy, Volume 23 number 1 (June 2023), pp. 96-113., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4491739

Konstantin (Moshe) Yanovskiy (Contact Author)

Shomron Center for Economic Policy Research ( email )

Kley Shir 8
Karney Shomron, 44855

Yehoshua Socol

Jerusalem College of Technology ( email )

Havaad haLeumi
Jerusalem, 4485500
Israel

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