The Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Sequestration Capacity in Terrestrial Ecosystems Across China

Abstract

The terrestrial ecosystem is the largest carbon pool in the world, and it is crucial to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal by effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This study used provincial panel data from 2004 to 2020 and a spatial Durbin model to explore the influencing factors of China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity (TECSC) and their spatial spillover effects. The results demonstrate that China’s TECSC exhibits a spatially positively correlated development pattern. Furthermore, forest coverage, economic growth, industrial structure, and technological innovation promote the improvement of the regional TECSC. However, energy consumption hinders the growth of green vegetation, thus inhibiting the advancement of TECSC. Lastly, the study finds that environmental regulations may lead to the relocation of highly polluting firms, which could potentially harm the TECSC in the surrounding regions. The above conclusions can provide scientific decision-making basis for promoting China’s TECSC under the background of carbon neutrality.

Keywords: carbon neutrality, terrestrial ecosystem, carbon sequestration capacity, spatial correlation, spillover effects