Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Mississippi River Basin Discharge in Cesm2 Large Ensemble Projections

36 Pages Posted: 3 Jul 2023

See all articles by Muhammad Rezaul Haider

Muhammad Rezaul Haider

University of Connecticut

S. G. Dee

Rice University

James Doss-Gollin

Rice University - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

K.B.J. Dunne

California Institute of Technology (Caltech)

S.E Muñoz

Northeastern University

Abstract

The Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the fourth-largest river basin in the world, is an important corridor for hydroelectric power generation, agricultural and industrial production, and riverine transportation. Historically, the Mississippi River has experienced floods resulting in significant loss of lives and property. In a future with an intensified global hydrological cycle, the altered discharge of the river may jeopardize communities and infrastructure situated in the floodplain. This study utilizes output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble simulations spanning 1930 to 2100 to quantify changes in future MRB discharge under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). These simulations show that increasing precipitation trends dominate increased evapotranspiration, driving an overall increase in total discharge in the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River basins. Decreasing spring snowmelt in both the Missouri and Ohio River basins results in the reduction of spring discharge. Our results harbor implications for water resources management including increased vulnerability of the Mississippi River given projected changes in climate.

Keywords: Mississippi River, CESM2 large ensembles, emissions scenario, hydroclimate variability

Suggested Citation

Haider, Muhammad Rezaul and Dee, S. G. and Doss-Gollin, James and Dunne, K.B.J. and Muñoz, S.E, Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Mississippi River Basin Discharge in Cesm2 Large Ensemble Projections. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4498502 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4498502

Muhammad Rezaul Haider (Contact Author)

University of Connecticut ( email )

Storrs, CT 06269-1063
United States

S. G. Dee

Rice University ( email )

6100 South Main Street
Houston, TX 77005-1892
United States

James Doss-Gollin

Rice University - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

6100 Main St.
Houston, TX 77005
United States

K.B.J. Dunne

California Institute of Technology (Caltech) ( email )

Pasadena, CA 91125
United States

S.E Muñoz

Northeastern University ( email )

220 B RP
Boston, MA 02115
United States

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