Quantifying the Contribution of the Oil Refining Industry to World Gross Production

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic impact of petroleum-refining production worldwide. The analysis, which is based on an inter-regional input-output model of the world economy, quantifies the gross production that should be attributed to the refining sector at both country and global levels. We use the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) to fully extract the refined petroleum products sector from the global production model and quantify total production (gross output) from production, consumption and trade in refined petroleum around the world. Our results provide a clear understanding of the global nature of petroleum and its economic impacts alongside its global production chain in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Quantitatively, our approach highlights the importance of petroleum in creating production in countries with the highest concentrations of refining industry (e.g. China, the United States and Russia). Qualitatively, it shows that the refining industry contributes in relative terms to a greater extent in countries with a small or modest presence in the world petroleum gross product (e.g. the Netherlands, Norway, and Canada). Overall, the economic impact of the refining industry is calculated to be 2.45 times higher than the direct gross product for this activity, which suggests that the petroleum value chain plays a significant role. The results discussed in this paper provide insights into the importance of the petroleum industry that may help to foresee the consequences of the ongoing energy transition, especially considering the pledge to abandon hydrocarbons outlined in the international energy portfolio.

Keywords: refining industry, global value chain, gross output.