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Projecting Feasible Medium-Term Growth of Wind and Solar Power Using National Trajectories and Hindcasting

59 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2023 Publication Status: Review Complete

See all articles by Avi Jakhmola

Avi Jakhmola

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory

Jessica Jewell

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory; University of Bergen - Centre for Climate and Energy Transformations; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - Advanced Systems Analysis

Vadim Vinichenko

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory

Aleh Cherp

Central European University

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Abstract

Despite the consensus on the desirability of rapid wind and solar power expansion, scholars disagree over realistic projections of their deployment. Here, we address the challenge of using empirical data for projecting renewables growth and use hindcasting to illustrate how and why existing approaches over- or under-estimate deployment. We show that in the formative phase, when the use of renewables is under 0.6% of electricity supply nationally or under 0.2-0.3% globally, their growth is erratic and not representative of later phases with substantial deployment levels. Using national observations from countries with higher deployment of renewables, we derive S-curve parameters, test their robustness, and propose a new hybrid model which outperforms existing approaches in projecting the global use of renewables. Under the assumption of historically fastest deployment speeds being sustained in all countries, it is feasible for global wind and solar power to grow as envisioned in most 2°C-compatible scenarios.

Keywords: feasibility, energy transitions, renewable energy, climate change mitigation, technology diffusion, solar PV, wind energy

Suggested Citation

Jakhmola, Avi and Jewell, Jessica and Vinichenko, Vadim and Cherp, Aleh, Projecting Feasible Medium-Term Growth of Wind and Solar Power Using National Trajectories and Hindcasting. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4501704 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4501704
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

Avi Jakhmola

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory ( email )

Jessica Jewell (Contact Author)

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory ( email )

Gothenburg
Sweden

University of Bergen - Centre for Climate and Energy Transformations ( email )

Norway

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - Advanced Systems Analysis ( email )

Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Vadim Vinichenko

Chalmers University of Technology - Division of Physical Resource Theory ( email )

Aleh Cherp

Central European University ( email )

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