Does Jail Contribute to Individuals Churning in and Out of the Criminal Legal System? A Quasiexperimental Evaluation of Pretrial Detention on Time Until New Arrest

Abstract

Objectives: The current study was designed to evaluate the effects of time spent in pretrial detention on the number of days from release until experiencing an arrest for a new offense and a new violent offense.

Methods: Using a sample of 16,198 individuals from three counties in the United States, the quasi-experimental evaluation relied on the doubly robust framework to estimate the effects of spending more than 7 days in pretrial detention – compared to spending 1 day or less in pretrial detention – on the number of days from release until a new arrest. The analysis estimate the Average Treatment Effects of spending than 7 days in pretrial detention on the number of days until experiencing a new arrest or new violent arrest using a fixed effects parametric survival model weighted using an Inverse Probability Weight. The primary models were replicated using spending more than 1 day in pretrial detention and spending more than 3 days in pretrial detention, in comparison to spending 1 day or less in pretrial detention

Results: The results of the current study suggest that spending more than 7 days in pretrial detention was associated with an increased probability of a new arrest and new violent arrest earlier when compared to spending 1 day or less in pretrial detention.

Conclusions: This research is consistent with the prior literature, suggesting that spending more time in pretrial detention might be criminogenic and contribute to an increased rate of churn through the county jail.

Keywords: Pretrial Detention, Time Until a New Arrest, Doubly Robust Survival Model, Jail