Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door

123 Pages Posted: 20 Jul 2023 Last revised: 28 Jul 2023

See all articles by John Eric Humphries

John Eric Humphries

Yale University - Department of Economics

Aurelie Ouss

University of Pennsylvania

Kamelia Stavreva

Columbia University

Megan T. Stevenson

University of Virginia School of Law

Winnie van Dijk

Harvard University, Department of Economics

Date Written: July 12, 2023

Abstract

We study the effects of conviction and incarceration on recidivism using quasi-random judge assignment. We extend the typical binary-treatment framework to a setting with multiple treatments, and outline a set of assumptions under which standard 2SLS regressions recover causal and margin-specific treatment effects. Under these assumptions, 2SLS regressions applied to data on felony cases in Virginia imply that conviction leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism relative to dismissal, consistent with a criminogenic effect of a criminal record. In contrast, incarceration reduces recidivism, but only in the short run. The assumptions we outline could be considered restrictive in the random judge framework, ruling out some reasonable models of judge decision-making. Indeed, a key assumption is empirically rejected in our data. Nevertheless, after deriving an expression for the resulting asymptotic bias, we argue that the failure of this assumption is unlikely to overturn our qualitative conclusions. Finally, we propose and implement alternative identification strategies. Consistent with our characterization of the bias, these analyses yield estimates qualitatively similar to those based on the 2SLS estimates. Taken together, our results suggest that conviction is an important and potentially overlooked driver of recidivism, while incarceration mainly has shorter-term incapacitation effects.

Keywords: Conviction, incarceration, recidivism, judge IV, multiple treatments

JEL Classification: K14

Suggested Citation

Humphries, John Eric and Ouss, Aurelie and Stavreva, Kamelia and Stevenson, Megan and van Dijk, Winnie, Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door (July 12, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4507597 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4507597

John Eric Humphries

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

28 Hillhouse Ave
New Haven, CT 06520-8268
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.johnerichumphries.com

Aurelie Ouss

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Kamelia Stavreva

Columbia University ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

Megan Stevenson (Contact Author)

University of Virginia School of Law ( email )

Winnie Van Dijk

Harvard University, Department of Economics

Cambridge, MA 02138
7736800581 (Phone)

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