Loan Guarantee and Portfolio Greening: Evidence from European Credit Registers

Abstract

Using pan-European credit register data, we analyze the sharp increase in public guaranteed lending (PGL) during the COVID-19 loan guarantee programs and show that banks leverage PGL to expand lending to low-emission firms. This behavior is driven by industries less affected by COVID-19, banks with "browner" portfolios, and younger firms. Notably, compared to high-emission firms, banks' internal risk assessments in PGL to low-emission firms are less frequently updated and exhibit weaker predictive power for future credit quality deterioration, indicating lax monitoring efforts. These findings highlight the additional information production costs associated with green lending and shed light on why banks may be slow to transition to greener portfolios.

Keywords: Climate Change, Green Lending, Public-Guaranteed Loans, information production

JEL Classification: G20, G21, G28