Misperceiving Nationalism: Beliefs About Others' Beliefs and Group Conformism in Foreign Policy

Abstract

We explore the effect of beliefs about others’ beliefs in the formation of foreign policy preferences in the context of interstate disputes over territory. We develop a new theoretical argument suggesting that misperceptions of norms regarding appropriate responses to national sovereignty challenges feed preferences for hawkish policies. We demonstrate that these misperceptions can be corrected by the provision of information regarding the share of the public that supports dovish as opposed to hawkish policies. Beliefs that public opinion is more dovish than expected reduce individual support for a hawkish foreign policy even during periods of nationalist conflict. Mechanisms underlying this pattern are tested through multiple surveys and experiments conducted in Greece during a period of escalating territorial conflict with Turkey.

Keywords: nationalism, misperceptions, foreign policy, Greek-Turkish relations, territorial conflict

JEL Classification: D74, D84