Electoral Responses to Economic Crises

Abstract

How do voters respond to economic crises: do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extensive data on electorates, parties and individuals in 22 countries for over half a century, we document a systematic pattern whereby economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right. Three main forces underlie this pattern. First, voters tend to decrease support for the party heading the government when the crisis erupts. Second, after crises voters tend to assign greater importance to issues typically owned by the right and turnout increases relatively among right-leaning voters. Third, when center-right parties preside over a crisis, their voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left. The far-right thus serves as an effective lightning rod, keeping the center-right in power even when facing post-crisis disaffection by its voters.

Keywords: economic crises, economic hardship, elections, economic voting, anti-incumbent vote