Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence

75 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2023 Last revised: 30 Jan 2025

See all articles by Diogo Baerlocher

Diogo Baerlocher

University of South Florida

Diego Firmino Costa da Silva

Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)

Guilherme Lambais

Universidade Lusíada, Lisboa

Eustaquio Reis

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Henrique Veras

UFPE

Date Written: January 30, 2025

Abstract

Following the discovery of gold in 1694 in Brazil, pathways were constructed to connect coastal settlements to mining regions in the unpopulated interior. While these pathways ini- tially facilitated the creation of road towns, their influence faded by the late nineteenth century. With the mid-twentieth-century demographic and industrial transition, regions with higher his- torical road density experienced renewed population growth and greater migrant inflows. We argue that this resurgence reflects the role of road towns in fostering early urbanization and structural transformation. Using an extended Rosen-Roback-Glaeser framework, we estimate strong agglomeration spillovers, suggesting that Brazil’s spatial economy exhibits multiple steady states and historical path dependence.

Keywords: Historical Roads, Geography, Multiple Equilibria, Path Dependence, Persistence, Population Density

JEL Classification: R12, N96, O18, O43

Suggested Citation

Baerlocher, Diogo and Firmino Costa da Silva, Diego and Lambais, Guilherme and Reis, Eustaquio and Veras de Paiva Fonseca, Henrique, Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence (January 30, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4513384 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4513384

Diogo Baerlocher (Contact Author)

University of South Florida ( email )

Tampa, FL 33620
United States

Diego Firmino Costa da Silva

Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE) ( email )

R. Dom Manoel de Medeiros, s/n, Dois Irmãos
Recife, PE, 52171
Brazil

Guilherme Lambais

Universidade Lusíada, Lisboa ( email )

Rua da Junqueira, 188 - 198
Lisboa, 1349-001
Portugal

Eustaquio Reis

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Henrique Veras de Paiva Fonseca

UFPE ( email )

Cidade Universitária
Recife, Pernambuco 50670-901
Brazil

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