Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence

68 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2023

See all articles by Diogo Baerlocher

Diogo Baerlocher

University of South Florida

Diego Firmino Costa da Silva

Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)

Guilherme Lambais

University of Lisbon - Institute of Social Sciences

Eustaquio Reis

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Henrique Veras

UFPE

Date Written: July 18, 2023

Abstract

We use the discovery of gold in Brazil as a historical quasi-experiment and show that gold roads are positively associated with population density and nightlight incidence in contemporary times. We then use official documents from the 19th century to build a nationwide transportation network that grew from the gold roads to show that the entire network also correlates with more population density today. Agglomeration spillovers are more likely to be the main mechanism driving the effect of historical pathways on long-run population density equilibrium, generating path dependence instead of historical persistence.

Keywords: Historical Roads, Geography, Path Dependence, Persistence, Population Density

JEL Classification: R12, N96, O18, O43

Suggested Citation

Baerlocher, Diogo and Silva, Diego Firmino Costa da and Lambais, Guilherme and Reis, Eustaquio and Veras de Paiva Fonseca, Henrique, Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence (July 18, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4513384 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4513384

Diogo Baerlocher (Contact Author)

University of South Florida ( email )

Tampa, FL 33620
United States

Diego Firmino Costa da Silva

Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE) ( email )

R. Dom Manoel de Medeiros, s/n, Dois Irmãos
Recife, PE, 52171
Brazil

Guilherme Lambais

University of Lisbon - Institute of Social Sciences ( email )

Av. Prof. Anibal de Bettencourt, 9
Lisboa, 1600-189
Portugal

Eustaquio Reis

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Henrique Veras de Paiva Fonseca

UFPE ( email )

Cidade Universitária
Cidade Universitária, Pernambuco 50670-901
Brazil

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