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Impact of 100 Days Vaccination Mission on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Study

26 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2023

See all articles by Gregory Barnsley

Gregory Barnsley

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Daniela Olivera Mesa

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Alexandra B. Hogan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Population Health

Peter Winskill

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Andrew A. Torkleson

Linksbridge SPC

Damian G. Walker

Management Sciences for Health

Azra Ghani

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics

Oliver J. Watson

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

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Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It also highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution. The 100 Days Mission aims to make a vaccine for the next pandemic globally accessible within 100 days of the pathogen’s first sequencing. We assessed the value of this mission by estimating the impact that it could have had on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Using a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fit to excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for three different investment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a vaccine, increasing manufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and strengthening health systems to enable faster vaccine roll-outs and global equity. Each scenario was compared against the observed COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the public health and health-economic impacts of each scenario. 

Findings: If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically, the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 9.88 million (95% credible interval 7.56 – 10.58 million) deaths globally, mostly in low-middle income countries. This corresponds to a monetary saving of $16.8 trillion (95% CrI $14.2 – $20.2) based on the value of statistical life years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems further increases deaths averted to 12.27 million (95% CrI 9.95 – 13.22 million). Under an alternative assumption whereby NPIs are lifted earlier based on vaccine coverage, the 100 Days Mission could have reduced restrictions by 15,800 (95% CrI 15,300-16,400) days globally whilst still averting 5.29 million (95% CrI 3.80 - 6.91 million) deaths.

Interpretation: Our findings demonstrate the value of 100 Days Mission and how these can be amplified through improvements in manufacturing and health systems equity. However, these investments must be enhanced by prioritising a more equitable global vaccine distribution.

Funding: Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; WHO; UK Medical Research Council; Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations

Declaration of Interest: The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) funded the investigation into the impact of the 100 Days Mission. Authors maintained full freedom when designing the study and deciding on additional scenarios to explore. ACG has received personal consultancy fees from HSBC, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi and WHO related to COVID-19 epidemiology and from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria for work unrelated to COVID-19. ACG was previously a non-remunerated member of a scientific advisory board for Moderna and is currently a non-remunerated member of the scientific advisory board for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness. OJW has received personal consultancy fees from WHO for work related to malaria. ABH has received personal consultancy fees from WHO for work related to COVID-19, and grant funding for COVID-19 work from WHO and NSW Ministry of Health, Australia. ABH is a member of the WHO Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee. AAT developed the allocation algorithm in collaboration with COVAX through funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, 100-Days Mission, Mathematical Modelling, Vaccinations

Suggested Citation

Barnsley, Gregory and Olivera Mesa, Daniela and Hogan, Alexandra B. and Winskill, Peter and Torkleson, Andrew A. and Walker, Damian G. and Ghani, Azra and Watson, Oliver J., Impact of 100 Days Vaccination Mission on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Study. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4519550 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4519550

Gregory Barnsley (Contact Author)

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis ( email )

Daniela Olivera Mesa

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis ( email )

Alexandra B. Hogan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Population Health ( email )

Peter Winskill

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Andrew A. Torkleson

Linksbridge SPC ( email )

Damian G. Walker

Management Sciences for Health ( email )

200 Rivers Edge Drive
Medford, MA 02155
United States

Azra Ghani

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London, Greater London SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Oliver J. Watson

Imperial College London - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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