Radical Technological Innovations and How to Promote Them

Abstract

Radical technological innovations are defined here as emerging new technologies that exhibit large (>10x) jumps in performance limits compared to incumbent technologies in the same application area. Relevant dimensions of performance vary across application areas and can include such technoeconomic metrics as power-to-weight ratio (e.g. for engines), device density (e.g. for electric switches), power density (e.g. for batteries). Three cases are presented here with performance data that exhibit such jumps: the evolution of engines from the early 18th to the late 20th century (with the transition from coal-based steam engines to hydrocarbon-based internal combustion engines); the evolution of electric switches from the early to the late 20th century (with the transition from vacuum tubes to transistors); and the evolution of batteries from the mid-20th to the 21st century (with the potential transition from electrochemical batteries to quantum batteries). I show that each such transition goes along with a change in the content of the knowledge domain that maps onto the respective application area, a process that has been called redomaining. I argue that the exploration of redomaining potentials – across a wide range of fields – is in the interest of the general public because of the inherent potential for radical technological innovation that redomaining bears. Redomaining is, however, not necessarily in the interest of scientific communities whose organization and advancement patterns are often closely tied to the coagulated content of established domains. This contrast implies conflicting interests, which innovation policy may seek to overcome. One proposed measure is the creation of small-scale exploratory research programs that represent protected spaces, where new ideas with redomaining potential can be safely tested and – if exhibiting sustained promise – fostered to maturity. An example for what such an intervention could look like is given in the form of the ARPA-E research program on low-energy nuclear reactions.

Keywords: radical innovation, performance limits, S-curve jumps, redomaining, innovation policy