The Deep Roots of American Populism

Abstract

Does populist politics have deep roots in the United States? Using a new dataset linking county vote shares in the 1890s with recent periods, we demonstrate that contemporary electoral populism in the United States has deep roots. Counties where voters were enthusiastic about populist parties in the late nineteenth century had higher vote shares for Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Building on the historical persistence framework, we show that counties with more individuals holding populist attitudes, racial resentment, or anti-immigration attitudes today are associated with counties voting more populist in the 1890s. Counties with strong populist voting in the past are also associated with lower net migration in subsequent periods, facilitating the persistence of these attitudes. Moments of rapid structural shifts and socioeconomic challenges may propel the resurgence of such attitudes, which can then be popularized by charismatic leaders.

Keywords: populism, persistence, People's Party, Trump