The Impact of Execution Moratoriums on Homicide Rates

Abstract

I examine the impact of moratoriums on executions on homicide rates. I employ the Synthetic Control Method to construct a synthetic version each of the four states that implemented a moratorium on executions. The results indicate no significant deterrent effect on homicide rates in these states. Robustness checks and supplementary analyses were conducted to ensure the validity of the primary SCM results. Furthermore, additional analyses incorporating control variables, such as population, race, income, and unemployment rate, were performed using a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences (DiD) model. The findings consistently show no statistically significant effect of the policy on homicide rates.

Keywords: Crime; Death Penalty; Capital Punishment; Deterrence; Homicide; Synthetic Control Method