Integrating 100% Renewable Energy in Developing Country Electricity Systems Using the Leap-Nemo Framework

Abstract

This article assesses developing-country power sector pathways toward net zero. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) combined with the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO) is used to simulate 100% renewable energy integration into power systems. While many studies have been carried out using LEAP, few have utilized NEMO—the latest optimization add-on for LEAP—and only one study covers developing countries. NEMO enables the inclusion of energy storage capacity in the long-term simulation of power system capacity expansion. Storage is crucial for balancing intermittent renewable energy especially when high penetration of renewable energy is considered. The analysis is applied to three countries in the Global South: Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. These three cases are selected because they are in some ways similar but at the same time different, thus simultaneously representing coherence and variation and being suitable for comparison. The LEAP-NEMO results indicate that the average electricity consumption per capita of the three countries will pass the energy poverty line by 2030, 2035, and 2045 for Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, respectively. On the supply side, the results show that the three countries can integrate 100% renewable energy into their power systems by realizing their hydro potential and deploying non-hydro renewables. As expected, energy storage systems play a critical role in balancing variable renewable energy with a total capacity of 16.1 GW by 2050. The annual average costs for the sustainable path range from 1.1% to 1.8% of each country’s GDP in 2020. The results contribute to a better understanding of the climate mitigation and electrification nexus in developing countries. While the approach presented in this paper is applied to three specific developing countries, it can be replicated in other developing countries to analyze 100% renewable energy integration into the power system to achieve net zero emissions.

Keywords: 100% renewable energy, net-zero emissions, Power system, climate change