Violent Right-Wing Radicals in the US, 2016-2021: Assessing Individual and Community Levels of Infection, Risk and Resilience to Extremism

Abstract

We examine violent right-wing radicals 2016-2021 in the US through an epidemiological lens of Levels of Infection, Risk and Resilience (LOIR2), and examine both individual and community factors associated with prevalence of extremist violence. We find stark differences between communities in which Jan 6 Capitol insurrectionists with known/no known extremist groups lived; the latter were much more likely to come from communities that trended whiter, more Republican (but with greater drop in Republican vote in 2020 relative to 2016), less educated, lower White male life expectancy higher % veteran, more stable neighborhoods, and much less racial demographic change compared to the US averages and to the counties that surrounded them. In contrast, the communities of the insurrectionists with known extremist group ties were largely consistent with US averages, and/or those of other recent right-wing radicals.

Keywords: violent extremism, intervention, prevention, risk, resiliency