By Force of Habit and Cyclical Leverage

27 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2023 Last revised: 25 Oct 2023

Date Written: August 14, 2023

Abstract

I show that most of Campbell and Cochrane's (1999) main predictions about asset price dynamics result from an inaccuracy in their model's numerical solution. In the accurate solution, volatility is a hump-shaped function of the model's state and falls in recessions. The leverage effect counterfactually disappears in recessions. Risk premia are substantially less cyclical and returns less predictable than reported in the original paper. At the 7-year horizon, the predictive R-squared falls from 30\% for the original solution to 10\% for the accurate solution. However, I show that the original findings can be restored by augmenting the model with countercyclical leverage.

Keywords: External habits, countercyclical volatility, return predictability, leverage, numerical solution methods

JEL Classification: G12, G13, G33

Suggested Citation

Schreindorfer, David, By Force of Habit and Cyclical Leverage (August 14, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4532711 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4532711

David Schreindorfer (Contact Author)

Arizona State University ( email )

United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.davidschreindorfer.com

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