The Trade Imbalance Network and Currency Returns

106 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2023 Last revised: 8 Mar 2025

See all articles by Ai Jun Hou

Ai Jun Hou

Stockholm University

Lucio Sarno

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Xiaoxia Ye

University of Nottingham

Date Written: March 02, 2025

Abstract

We extend the theory of Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) to study currency risk premia in a multi-country world with imperfect financial markets. Currency returns are connected to financiers’ limited commitment, captured by the complexity of their balance sheets in the trade imbalance network. Guided by the theory, we construct a Centrality Based Characteristic (CBC), based on the centrality of the imbalance network and variance-covariance of currency returns. Sorting currencies on CBC generates a high Sharpe ratio, and the resulting excess returns cannot be explained by standard currency factors and intermediary asset pricing factors, suggesting a novel source of currency predictability

Keywords: Trade imbalance network, Currency premia, Carry trade, Network centrality

JEL Classification: F31, F37, G12, G15

Suggested Citation

Hou, Ai Jun and Sarno, Lucio and Ye, Xiaoxia, The Trade Imbalance Network and Currency Returns (March 02, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4534287 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4534287

Ai Jun Hou

Stockholm University ( email )

Universitetsvägen 10
Stockholm, Stockholm SE-106 91
Sweden

Lucio Sarno

University of Cambridge - Judge Business School ( email )

Trumpington Street
Cambridge, CB2 1AG
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Xiaoxia Ye (Contact Author)

University of Nottingham ( email )

University Park
Nottingham, NG8 1BB
United Kingdom

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