Exogenous Shocks and the Dynamics between Geopolitics and Global Trade

Journal of World Trade, pending publication in 2024

30 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2023 Last revised: 7 Jul 2024

See all articles by June Borge Doornich

June Borge Doornich

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School

Pål Andreas Pedersen

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School

Abstract

In this study, we seek to uncover how exogenous shocks shape the dynamics between geopolitics and global trade. By using coupling theory, we propose that the intricate interplay between politics and trade can occurs with different nuances and degrees of coupling. We introduce four different situations of coupling, based on historical shocks. We also propose a new form of coupling, that we label as semi-coupling that can occur from shocks such as the COVID-pandemic, and possible future large climate disasters or migration flows.

Keywords: Global trade, geopolitics, exogenous shocks, coupling theory

Suggested Citation

Doornich, June Borge and Pedersen, Pål Andreas, Exogenous Shocks and the Dynamics between Geopolitics and Global Trade. Journal of World Trade, pending publication in 2024, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4534369 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4534369

June Borge Doornich (Contact Author)

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School ( email )

Bodø, 8049
Norway

Pål Andreas Pedersen

University of Nordland - Nord University Business School ( email )

Bodø, 8049
Norway

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