Modeling the Optimal Management of Land Subsidence Due to Aquifers Overexploitation

33 Pages Posted: 10 Aug 2023

See all articles by Encarna Esteban

Encarna Esteban

University of Zaragoza

Ariel Dinar

School of Public Policy

Elena Calvo

University of Zaragoza - Department of Economic Analysis

Javier Calatrava

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jose Albiac

University of Zaragoza

Gerardo Herrera

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Pietro Teatini

University of Padua - Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics

Roberto Tomás

Universidad de Alicante

Pablo Ezquerro

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Yang Li

University of Toronto

Abstract

The study of land subsidence has recently been expanded due to its increased occurrence worldwide. Many groundwater systems around the world face overexploitation with serious associated quality and quantity problems. However, one important problem that is still underrepresented in scientific studies, especially from an economic point of view, is land subsidence. The occurrence and magnitude of land subsidence suggests better knowledge of its impacts, and the policies to address it. This paper develops and applies an optimal control model of groundwater extractions under conditions of land subsidence. We include, in a traditional groundwater management model, two types of negative externalities associated with land subsidence: damage to infrastructure and to economic activities, and the loss of aquifer storage capacity. The model is characterized by two sub-problems corresponding to the phase before and after the occurrence of subsidence, when the two externalities dictate the behavior of the optimal path of groundwater withdrawals. The model is applied to the Alto Guadalentín over-exploited aquifer in the Segura River Basin of Spain. The results suggest that regional net present value of welfare over the planning period, under the two land subsidence scenarios, is reduced by nearly 1–5%, compared to the no land subsidence scenario. Furthermore, under subsidence, even with relatively small impacts of both types of externalities, groundwater optimal extractions are kept at levels that avoid these externalities. These outcomes clearly call for government intervention in order to curtail groundwater withdrawals in aquifers with propensity to face undesirable subsidence effects.

Keywords: land subsidence, Groundwater, water overdraft, two-stage optimization, Pontryagin backward-solving problem, Guadaletín aquifer.

Suggested Citation

Esteban, Encarna and Dinar, Ariel and Calvo, Elena and Calatrava, Javier and Albiac, Jose and Herrera, Gerardo and Teatini, Pietro and Tomás, Roberto and Ezquerro, Pablo and Li, Yang, Modeling the Optimal Management of Land Subsidence Due to Aquifers Overexploitation. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4537624 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4537624

Encarna Esteban (Contact Author)

University of Zaragoza ( email )

Gran Via 2
Zaragoza, 50005
Spain

Ariel Dinar

School of Public Policy ( email )

900 University Blvd.
Riverside, CA 92521
United States

Elena Calvo

University of Zaragoza - Department of Economic Analysis ( email )

50005 Zaragoza
Spain

Javier Calatrava

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Jose Albiac

University of Zaragoza ( email )

Gerardo Herrera

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Pietro Teatini

University of Padua - Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics ( email )

Via Belzoni 7
Padova, 35100
ITALY
+39 049 8275919 (Phone)
+39 049 8275995 (Fax)

Roberto Tomás

Universidad de Alicante ( email )

Campus de San Vicente
Carretera San Vicente del Raspeig
San Vicente del Raspeig, 03690
Spain

Pablo Ezquerro

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Yang Li

University of Toronto ( email )

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada

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