Mechanism and Early Warning of Coal Mine Rockburst Accident Based on SD-STAMP-DEMATEL

Abstract

As the mining operation shifts from shallow to deep areas, the increase of the number of mines at risk of rockburst hazards continues to increase. This paper analyzes the causal factors affecting rockburst accidents in coal mines based on the system-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) theory. The interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to quantitatively assess the causal factors of accidents. By constructing model equations and drawing causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, dynamic simulation and early warning of the events are achieved. The results indicate that the control deficiencies leading to accidents are analyzed from the perspective of government, management, grassroots, physical aspects, and the dynamic process of accidents. In the short term, safety investment is the most effective way to control frontline operations, while in the long term, increased management oversight is the most effective measure. By adjusting the input proportions of various variables, it is evident that different variables in the system dynamics (SD) model have varying impacts on coal mine rockburst accidents. It is necessary to continuously strengthen the implementation of the safety responsibility system, improve the efficiency of the government and management, and enhance the timeliness of emergency decision-making.

Keywords: Coal mine rockburst, system dynamics, interpretative structural modeling (ISM), decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), system-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP)