Why Do People Move Across State Borders? Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

This study uses the 2020 Census to explore the determinants of interstate migration in Mexico between 2015 and 2020 and the earnings gains from migration. The study analyzes both spatial characteristics (push and pull factors in the origin and destination states) and individual factors that influence the decision to migrate and where to migrate. Push and pull factors are assessed using a gravity-type model. Individual factors are analyzed using a multinomial regression model that accounts for migration reasons. Subsequently, the study measures the impact of internal migration on labor income. Earnings gains are estimated using a double selection model that accounts simultaneously for the decisions to migrate and to work. Finally, the paper discusses some policy recommendations that could help leverage internal migration potential for improving women’s labor market outcomes.

Keywords: Mexico, internal migration, labor mobility, gender, gravity model, multinomial regression, double selection

JEL Classification: J15, J61, O12