The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

39 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2003

See all articles by Amelie F. Constant

Amelie F. Constant

Princeton University; UNU-MERIT; CESifo

Klaus F. Zimmermann

Global Labor Organization (GLO); UNU-MERIT; Maastricht University, Department of Economics; Free University Berlin; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Journal of Population Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2003

Abstract

While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.

Keywords: repeat migration, guestworkers, qualitative choice models, duration analysis, Markov chain analysis

JEL Classification: F22, J61, C25, C41, C44

Suggested Citation

Constant, Amelie F. and Zimmermann, Klaus F., The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis (October 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=455860

Amelie F. Constant

Princeton University ( email )

189 Wallace Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544
United States

HOME PAGE: http://opr.princeton.edu/visitors/

UNU-MERIT ( email )

Keizer Karelplein 19
Maastricht, 6211TC
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.merit.unu.edu/about-us/profile/?staff_id=2419

CESifo ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/research/Network/Members.html

Klaus F. Zimmermann (Contact Author)

Global Labor Organization (GLO) ( email )

Bonn
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://https://glabor.org/

UNU-MERIT ( email )

Keizer Karelplein 19
Maastricht, 6211TC
Netherlands

Maastricht University, Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 616
Maastricht, 6200MD
Netherlands

University of Bonn

Postfach 2220
Bonn, D-53012
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Journal of Population Economics

Tiergartenstr. 17
D-69121 Heidelberg
Germany

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
172
Abstract Views
1,400
rank
172,540
PlumX Metrics