Analysis of the Effects of Canal Istanbul on the Turkish Straits System Ship Traffic: A Maritime Traffic System and Simulation Model

Abstract

The Turkish Strait System (TSS) is one of the busiest waterways globally, consisting of the Istanbul and Canakkale Straits along with the Marmara Sea. The increasing size and carrying capacities of ships passing through these straits pose risks to maritime traffic. Consequently, ship traffic regulations cause bottlenecks and long waiting queues. The Canal Istanbul Project is proposed as an alternative to improve traffic efficiency and safety. This study presents a real-time maritime traffic system and queuing model to analyze the potential effects of the Canal Istanbul Project on TSS ship traffic. Using Simio simulation software, two models are developed for one-way and two-way traffic. Scenarios based on historical data are simulated, and comparative statistical results are obtained. The second model, allowing only transit ship traffic and one-way passage, shows better results. Redirecting 90% of transit ships to Canal Istanbul and 10% to Istanbul Strait decreases ship density by 36% and waiting times by 50% compared to the current TSS situation. In conclusion, the Canal Istanbul Project offers potential benefits in improving efficiency and safety in the TSS. By redirecting transit ships, significant reductions in ship density and waiting times can be achieved.

Keywords: Canal Istanbul, Turkish Strait System, Simulation, Ship traffic, Queue model