Tradable Factor Risk Premia and Oracle Tests of Asset Pricing Models

79 Pages Posted: 18 Sep 2023

See all articles by Alberto Quaini

Alberto Quaini

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)

Fabio Trojani

University of Geneva; University of Turin - Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics; Swiss Finance Institute

Ming Yuan

Columbia University

Date Written: September 16, 2023

Abstract

Tradable factor risk premia are defined by the negative factor covariance with the Stochastic Discount Factor projection on returns. They are robust to misspecification or weak identification in asset pricing models, and they are zero for any factor weakly correlated with returns. We propose a simple estimator of tradable factor risk premia that enjoys the Oracle Property, i.e., it performs as well as if the weak or useless factors were known. This estimator not only consistently removes such factors, but it also gives rise to reliable tests of asset pricing models. We study empirically a family of asset pricing models from the factor zoo and detect a robust subset of economically relevant and well-identified models, which are built out of factors with a nonzero tradable risk premium. Well-identified models feature a relatively low factor space dimension and some degree of misspecification, which harms the interpretation of other established notions of a factor risk premium in the literature.

Keywords: Testing of asset pricing models, factor risk premia, useless and weak factors, factor selection, model misspecification, Oracle estimation and inference

JEL Classification: G12, C12, C13, C51, C52, C58

Suggested Citation

Quaini, Alberto and Trojani, Fabio and Yuan, Ming, Tradable Factor Risk Premia and Oracle Tests of Asset Pricing Models (September 16, 2023). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 23-81, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4574683 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4574683

Alberto Quaini

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam, NL 3062 PA
Netherlands

Fabio Trojani (Contact Author)

University of Geneva ( email )

Geneva, Geneva
Switzerland

University of Turin - Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics ( email )

Piazza Arbarello, 8
Turin, I-10122
Italy

Swiss Finance Institute ( email )

c/o University of Geneva
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1211 Geneva 4
Switzerland

Ming Yuan

Columbia University

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