Demystifying China’s Critical Minerals Strategies: Rethinking “De-risking” Supply Chains

Abstract

“De-risking” is the latest buzzword in the China strategy of the United States and its allies. It means limiting dependence on and engagement with China in select strategic sectors. One of such sectors concerns critical minerals (CMs) which are essential for the ongoing green economic transition. To secure access to CMs and reduce reliance on China, the US and its allies have been developing networks for ally-shoring supply chains. A major problem with the “de-risking” strategy in this regard is that it treats China as the risk and hence excludes China from the discussions and collaboration on global supply chain issues. In this paper, we argue that this strategy fails to consider China’s strategies and policies regarding CMs. We therefore offer a detailed analysis of the Chinese policies which shows that they have been primarily aimed at addressing internal challenges and policy priorities in China rather than dominating, weaponizing or causing disruptions in global supply chains. To address supply chains risks most effectively, international collaborative frameworks should engage with, rather than exclude, China. Confrontational strategies with “China being the risk” at the core might themselves be a risk by undermining rational policymaking and leading to disruptive policies.

Keywords: China, Critical minerals, Green industrial policy, De-risking, De-coupling, Geopolitical tensions, Ally-shoring, Supply chains, IPEF, WTO.