The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Wellbeing of Subsistence Farmers in Tropical (Sub)Montane Homegardens. A Case Study on Mount Kilimanjaro

Abstract

CONTEXTThrough their provisioning ecosystem services, agroforestry systems support the wellbeing of millions of subsistence farmers across the tropics. In addition, agroforestry systems are advocated in policy and literature as an effective adaptation to climate change measure, despite growing evidence that these agricultural systems could also succumb to climate change. While the potential biophysical impacts of climate change on agroforests and their ecosystem services are becoming increasingly known, few studies investigate the subsequent impacts on farmers’ wellbeing.OBJECTIVEThis study aims to empirically analyse how a potential warmer and drier future climate could affect the provisions of crops and income in a homegarden agroforestry system and the wellbeing of subsistence farmers.METHODSWe employed a space-for-time climate analogue analysis approach based on changing altitude proxying for changes in climate on the lower SE slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro to examine changes in wellbeing under changing climate conditions. To guide our study, we developed an interdisciplinary conceptual framework for understanding how climate pressures can impact farmers within tropical agroforestry systems by considering changes in the system’s social and ecological components, their interaction, ecosystem services, and wellbeing outcomes. Mixed methods were used to statistically analyse differences and changes between farming households’ wellbeing in homegardens and qualitatively understand the associated mechanisms.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONOverall, the warmer and drier climate conditions reduced provisions of crops, income, and cattle in the homegarden, which negatively affected farmers’ wellbeing, particularly their nutrition. Farmers who supplemented their homegarden production using open dryland farming were less vulnerable to climate effects. Whether this strategy is sustainable is uncertain as it relies on maintaining access to expensive productive assets, i.e., agrochemicals and dryland farms, which could become challenging under climate change. Higher selling prices for bananas influenced by predicted declines in banana yield may provide some support to farmers.SIGNIFICANCEOur findings are significant because 1) they infer that farmers’ wellbeing could decline under future climate change, and 2) they demonstrate that tropical agroforestry systems are still vulnerable to climate effects, despite their current advocation as an adaptation to climate change measure. We conclude that decision-makers should consider potential future climate scenarios and land availability for additional dryland farms for supporting agroforestry.

Keywords: Agroforestry, climate analogue analysis, multidimensional wellbeing, livelihood assets, conceptual framework, climate impacts