Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

82 Pages Posted: 25 Sep 2023

See all articles by Navid Sabet

Navid Sabet

Goethe University Frankfurt

Marius Liebald

Goethe University Frankfurt

Guido Friebel

Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: 2023

Abstract

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multi-party democratic system.

Keywords: terrorism, populism, media, salience, voting

JEL Classification: D720, K420, L820

Suggested Citation

Sabet, Navid and Liebald, Marius and Friebel, Guido, Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany (2023). CESifo Working Paper No. 10653, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4581869 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4581869

Navid Sabet (Contact Author)

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Marius Liebald

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Guido Friebel

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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