Monetary Policy, Carbon Transition Risk, and Firm Valuation

Abstract

We document that the stock prices of firms with higher carbon emissions respond more to monetary policy shocks around Federal Open Market Committee announcements. Theoretically, we show that greater emissions-reduction needs can explain high-emission firms’ heightened sensitivity to monetary policy. Consistent with this channel, we find that (i) the valuation results are stronger among capital-intensive and highly levered firms and (ii) high-emission firms reduce emissions relatively faster on average, but disproportionately slow down these efforts when monetary policy is restrictive. We also examine  bond price responses to monetary policy shocks to assess the relevance of differential discount rate effects. 

Keywords: monetary policy, firm valuation, Carbon emissions, climate transition risk, stock returns

JEL Classification: G12, G38, E52