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Projected Burden of Elevated Blood Pressure Levels and its Consequence Among Adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa
25 Pages Posted: 28 Sep 2023
More...Abstract
Background: We combined contemporary data on the proportion of adolescents with elevated blood pressure (BP) with country-specific population data, to estimate the current distribution/burden of cases across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and their increased risk of future cardiovascular events.
Methods: Meta-analysis data from 29 696 adolescents participating in 36 contemporary studies from SSA were used to generate sex-specific proportions (with lower and upper ranges) of elevated BP among individuals aged 10-14 years and 15-19 years. Estimates were applied to 2021 World Bank population data for each country in SSA on an age- and sex-specific basis. The rate of cardiovascular events attributable to elevated BP derived from a meta-analysis of 17 observational cohorts comprising 4·5 million young adults were then applied, to assess the likely future burden of disease attributable to elevated BP.
Findings: Among males and females aged 10-14 years, estimated prevalence of elevated BP was 7·2% (95% CI 4·9%-9·9%) and 6·9% (4·7%-9·5%), rising to 13·0% (10·6%-15·6%) and 12·5% (10·4%-15·3%) among males and females aged 15-19 years, respectively. Consequently, we estimate that 13·6 million (lower-to-upper range based on 95% CI, 10·4 to 17·3 million) of 138·0 million males and 12·9 million (9·83 to 16·3 million) of 135·7 million females adolescents living in SSA have elevated BP. Among the estimated 16·1 million adolescents aged 15-19 years old approaching adulthood with elevated BP, the projected excess in cardiovascular events attributable to being hypertensive (versus being normotensive) is 201 000 (115 000 to 322 000) to 503 000 (286 000 to 805 000) over the next 10 to 25 years.
Interpretation: Pending more definitive studies (including more data from low-income countries), we estimate 26·5 million adolescents living in SSA have elevated BP. If left undetected and untreated, this will result in >0·5 million excess cardiovascular events within 25 years among those aged 15-19 years.
Funding: No funding sources.
Declaration of Interest: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Keywords: Hypertension, blood pressure, adolescents, prevalence, cardiovascular events, sub-Saharan Africa
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation