The Disutility of SEIR Model Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

18 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2023 Last revised: 17 Jan 2024

See all articles by Tarini Sudhakar

Tarini Sudhakar

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business

Ashna Bhansali

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business

John Walkington

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business

David Puelz

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business; University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Date Written: September 25, 2023

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several forecasting models were released to predict the spread of the virus along variables vital for public health policymaking. Of these, the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model was the most common. In this paper, we investigate the forecasting performance of The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium SIR model. We consider the following daily outcomes: hospitalizations, ICU patients and deaths. We evaluate the overall forecasting performance, highlight some stark forecast biases, and consider forecast errors conditional on different pandemic regimes. We find that this model tends to over forecast over the longer horizons and when there is a surge in viral spread. We bolster these findings by linking them to faults with the SIR framework itself.

Note:

Funding Information: None

Conflict of Interests: None

Keywords: Compartmental models, SEIR models, COVID-19

JEL Classification: H75, C10, C54

Suggested Citation

Sudhakar, Tarini and Bhansali, Ashna and Walkington, John and Puelz, David, The Disutility of SEIR Model Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic (September 25, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4583359 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4583359

Tarini Sudhakar

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

Ashna Bhansali

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

John Walkington

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

David Puelz (Contact Author)

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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