Economic Strain Does Not Reduce Support for Ukrainian Refugees in Poland and Germany

Abstract

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine forced millions to flee to neighboring countries while also raising European energy prices. If economic strains were to induce anti-refugee attitudes anywhere, they are likely to do so in Poland or Germany, the two countries hosting the largest numbers of Ukrainians. Using two panel surveys conducted in 2022-2023, we investigate whether economic strains undermined support for Ukrainian refugees or the war effort. In both countries, we find high and stable levels of support for Ukrainian refugees and efforts to help them and Ukraine, even in the face of rising economic costs. Evidence of the stability of public opinion is further bolstered by multiple survey experiments which make factors including the refugees' economic impacts salient. Pro-Ukrainian attitudes were steady over the war's first year and not a product of social desirability.

Keywords: Public opinion, refugees, immigration, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, panel surveys

JEL Classification: F22