The Times Land-Wef Model: An Integrated Analysis of the Agricultural System of the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Abstract

he frequency of extreme events and water scarcity caused by climate change require a substantial transformation of the agricultural sector to increase its resilience and improve its contribution to climate neutrality. The proposed TIMES Land-WEF model integrates a bottom-up technology oriented approach with Nexus thinking to comprehensively represent its major components, water, energy, food and land. A new modelling approach, in which land use, the driving parameter, is linked to inputs and outputs commodities through agricultural activities, was devised to assess the effects of the Farm to Fork strategy on resource use and crop productivity in the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) agricultural system over a 50-year time horizon (2010-2060). Results show that policy constraints influence land use patterns, reduce energy and water consumption and encourage the cultivation of more climate-friendly crops.

Keywords: Water-Energy-Food nexus, IEA-TIMES, Agriculture, Farm to Fork Strategy, Scenario Analysis