Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

40 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 1997 Last revised: 14 May 2000

See all articles by Robert P. Flood

Robert P. Flood

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department; CENTRUM Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Nancy Peregrim Marion

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 1996

Abstract

We develop a modified understand better the 1994 Mexican peso crisis as well as aspects of the European currency crises in 1992-93. We introduce the assumption that the speculative attack is sterilized by the domestic monetary authority, we incorporate a stochastic risk premium, and we allow for some price stickiness. The modified model shows that macroeconomic policies inconsistent in the longer run with a fixed exchange rate can push the economy inevitably towards a currency crisis, but it also demonstrates how a government currently following consistent macroeconomic policies can suddenly face a speculative attack triggered by a large shift in speculative opinion. However, the ability of a sudden shift in speculative opinion to trigger an attack is bounded by the position of fundamentals. Thus an attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable.

Suggested Citation

Flood, Robert P. and Marion, Nancy P., Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (October 1996). NBER Working Paper No. w5789, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4603

Robert P. Flood (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-7667 (Phone)
202-623-6339 (Fax)

CENTRUM Business School

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Los Alamos de Monterrico
Surco, Lima, Lima 00001
Peru

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Nancy P. Marion

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States
(603) 646-2511 (Phone)

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